Analyst Forecasts PS5 to Outperform Switch 2 in US Sales by 2025

A seasoned gaming analyst has shared an interesting perspective: if the Nintendo Switch 2 hits the market during the early part of 2025, the PlayStation 5 could outpace it in sales across the United States. According to Mat Piscatella from Circana, we might also see several months of supply shortages, as the demand for Nintendo’s highly-awaited new console is expected to soar.

Will the PlayStation 5 really trump the Switch 2 if the latter faces no distribution challenges? Piscatella didn’t offer extensive details on why he believes the PS5 could surpass the Switch 2 within its first year, beyond possible supply limitations and a potential late 2025 release. It makes us question whether his prediction would hold if Nintendo were to overcome any hardware shortages.

Nonetheless, this forecast is quite audacious, especially considering that the PS5 is already in the latter stages of its product cycle. However, if Grand Theft Auto 6 does drop as anticipated this year, it’s likely we’ll see a significant spike in demand for Sony’s console.

In a Bluesky post, Piscatella elaborated, saying, “I project Nintendo’s next device will sell 4.3 million units in the U.S. in 2025, assuming it launches in the first half of the year. This would represent roughly a third of all video game console units sold that year, excluding PC portables. Nevertheless, the number of units sold will inevitably depend on manufacturing capacity. I still anticipate that the PlayStation 5 will claim the top spot for overall hardware sales in the U.S. throughout the year.”

What are your thoughts on this projection? We’d love to hear from you.